Don’t get me wrong, I think John McCain and conservatives in the House are right to emphasize earmark reform and cutting wasteful spending. In 2006, Republicans lost in part because our “brand” was tarnished by the Bridge to Nowhere and the scandals of several Congressmen.

McCain and the conservatives at the Republican Study Committee seemed focused on pocketbook issues alone. With the economy sputtering, I understand. But Americans also vote their values.

Conservatives on Capitol Hill need to start aggressively courting social conservatives if they want to win in November. Right now, the Republican Study Committee looks like they’re lagging behind on pushing a social conservative agenda. Since they applauded the Right to Life march in January, their media shop has been radio silent on pro-life issues.

The clock is ticking.

A district once won by President Bush by 25 points is now in the hands of Democrat Travis Childers, who won big yesterday in the special election in Mississippi to replace Senator Roger Wicker’s House seat.

Childers won handily 54% to 46% to hand the GOP its third consecutive special election loss.

Tom Cole, head of the GOP re-election efforts, did not blame the candidate this time.

“Tonight’s election highlights two significant challenges Republicans must overcome this November,” Cole said. “First, Republicans must be prepared to campaign against Democrat challengers who are running as conservatives, even as they try to join a liberal Democrat majority. Though the Democrats’ task will be more difficult in a November election, the fact is they have pulled off two special election victories with this strategy, and it should be a concern to all Republicans.”

“The political environment is such that voters remain pessimistic about the direction of the country and the Republican Party in general,” Cole continued. “I encourage all Republican candidates, whether incumbents or challengers, to take stock of their campaigns and position themselves for challenging campaigns this fall by building the financial resources and grassroots networks that offer them the opportunity and ability to communicate, energize and turn out voters this election.”

With gas at $4 a gallon, mortgages in trouble, the political fortunes for Republicans this November look downright terrible. Of course, a lot can change in politics in five months. For the sake of the GOP, a lot had better change.

Vito Fossella arrested for a DUI. Might be involved in an extra-marital affair. New York tabloids having a field day. And it could cost the GOP his seat.

Makes me wonder: Are conservatives to blame for the lousy leadership coming from DC? Can we be expected to know that Rick Renzi, Mark Foley, Robert Ney, Curt Weldon, Don Sherwood, and Vito Fossella were going to be such disappointments?

Well, it seems the upset in Louisiana is having the effect of jolting the Republican House leadership in Washington. Nothing breaks the stupor like a stunning and stinging loss.

Newt Gingrich offered some ideas for reform and said: “The Republican loss in the special election for Louisiana’s 6th Congressional District last Saturday should be a sharp wake-up call for Republicans. Either congressional Republicans are going to chart a bold course of real change or they are going to suffer decisive losses this November. The Republican brand has been so badly damaged that if Republicans try to run an anti-Obama, anti-Rev. Wright or, if Sen. Clinton wins, anti-Clinton campaign, they are simply going to fail.”

Politico reported that a “top House Republican” brushed aside Newt’s comments as ”hype from a has-been who desperately wants to be a player but can’t anymore.”

Say what you will about Newt. And there’s much to say. I thought the rap on him was that he was a lousy leader once he got his party into power, but that winning elections was something that he was good at. Given the licking the GOP got in 2006 and the fact that 80% of Americans think we’re on the wrong track… I guess, I’d be open to advice.

That a Democrat won a safe Republican seat is being seen as a foretaste of a Democratic landslide in November. Perhaps. But while the 6th District was once reliably Republican, it’s major city is Baton Rouge, which saw a swelling in population due to Hurricane Katrina. Isn’t it possible that the major demographic shift played a significant factor in this race? I haven’t seen anyone else mention that… Calling Michael Barone…

In 2006, Democrats found Iraqi War Veterans to run for Congress who were opposed to the war. This year, The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the GOP has 17 Iraqi War Veterans running for House seats.

Until recently, the trend was fewer and fewer Veterans serving in Congress.  No matter what your opinion on the war, it is healthy that we have more Veterans in Congress. Having served in war, Veterans are far more realistic about what wars can and cannot accomplish. They also have experienced government bureaucracy first hand and realize both its strengths and shortcomings.

That’s what the Cook Political Report predicts Democrats are likely to gain in November. Congressional scandals, 29 Republican House retirements (vs. six Democrats), and overall low approval ratings are difficult to overcome, which means November could be a bloodbath for Republicans. It also suggests, contrary to the inevitable media spin, that Democratic gains will likely come more from a combination of fortunate circumstances than a new national embrace of their party ideas.

House Minority Leader John Boehner disagrees, suggesting Republicans could actually gain seats. The only hope, it seems, is that fortunes change as a result of the infighting between supporters of Obama and Clinton.

Yet, most pundits agree that Democrats are well positioned to improve their majorities in both houses. Which makes preserving a pro-life voice in the White House that much more important.

Roll Call is reporting that Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NY) announced that he will not run for re-election. That’s the 29th Republican who has decided to retire, making the chances of the GOP re-taking the House in 2008 very difficult.

Hat tip: David Freddoso